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Playing Low
Karina Jett
April 16th, 2007
How Much Luck? How Much Skill?
Ben Roberts
March 30th, 2007
The Weak Lead
Lee Watkinson
March 23rd, 2007
Satellite Savviness
Team Full Tilt
March 1st, 2007
The Pain Barrier - Manipulating Your Opponent
Joe Beevers
Feb 9, 2007
Finding the Low Cards in Omaha Hi/Lo
Mike Matusow
Jan 15, 2007
Looking at the Long-Term
Erik Seidel
Jan 6, 2007
Playing Small and Medium Pairs in Seven-Card Stud
Perry Friedman
Dec 29, 2006
Playing Aces in PLO
Andrew Black
Dec 21, 2006
Playing in Australia
Mark Vos
Dec 15, 2006
Playing Mixed Games
Jennifer Harman
Dec 7, 2006
Pot-Size Manipulation
Gavin Smith
Nov 30, 2006
Betting out of Position
Gus Hansen
Nov 20, 2006
How a Pro Thinks Through a Hand
Team Full Tilt
Nov 13, 2006
Cash Equity at the Final Table
Rafe Furst
Nov 6, 2006
Getting Beyond Your Cards
Perry Friedman
Oct 30, 2006
The Mindset of a Winner
Kristy Gazes
Oct 23, 2006
Balancing Poker and Life
Clonie Gowen
Oct 16, 2006
Play More Pots
Erick Lindgren
Oct 9, 2006
Heads-Up vs Multi-Way Hands in Omaha Hi/Lo
Andy Bloch
Oct 3, 2006
Playing Big Slick in Deep Stack Tournaments
Paul Wolfe
Sept 25, 2006
Breaking Out of Your Comfort Zone
Ben Roberts
Sept 18, 2006
Playing Cap Games
Howard Lederer
Sept 11, 2006
From No-Limit to Limit
Richard Brodie
Sept 4, 2006
Check-Raising on Draws
Steve Brecher
August 28, 2006
Betting the River with Marginal Hands
Andy Bloch
August 21, 2006
Learning from Allen Cunningham
Jay Greenspan
August 14, 2006
Acknowledging Mistakes
Team Full Tilt
August 7, 2006
Playing the Main Event
Gus Hansen
July 31, 2006
Managing the Short Stack
Mark Vos
July 24, 2006
Playing Pot-Limit Tournaments
Rafe Furst
July 17, 2006
Red for a Day
Brian Koppelman
July 10, 2006
A Big Stack Mistake at the 2006 WSOP
Phil Gordon
July 3, 2006
Winning Poker - It's About More Than Money
Ben Roberts
June 26, 2006
Seventh Street Decisions in Seven-Stud
Keith Sexton
June 19, 2006
Big Blind Play in Limit Hold 'em
Jennifer Harman
June 12, 2006
Firing the Second Bullet
Greg "FBT" Mueller
June 5, 2006
Fourth Street Decisions in Seven Stud
Keith Sexton
May 29, 2006
Finding Your Inner Maniac
Greg "FBT" Mueller
May 22, 2006
Beware the Min Raise
Phil Gordon
May 15, 2006
Playing Bottom Two Pair
Rafe Furst
May 8, 2006
The Other Danger in Slow Playing
Howard Lederer
May 1, 2006
Why I Prefer Cash Games to Tournaments
Huckleberry Seed
April 24, 2006
Early Tournament Play
David Grey
April 17, 2006
Bad Position, Decent Cards
Howard Lederer
April 3, 2006
Inducing a Bluff
Layne Flack
March 27, 2006
Back to Basics
David Grey
March 20, 2006
Representing a Bluff
Huckleberry Seed
March 13, 2006
Viewer Beware
Howard Lederer
March 6, 2006
When Passive Plays
Chris Ferguson
February 27, 2006
Book Smarts vs. Table Smarts
Erik Seidel
February 20, 2006
Playing with John D'Agostino
Jay Greenspan
February 13, 2006
On Cavemen and Poker Players
Ben Roberts
February 6, 2006
Small-Pot Poker
Gavin Smith
January 30, 2006
Tips From Tunica
Andy Bloch
January 23, 2006
How Big a Bankroll?
Team Full Tilt
January 16, 2006
Thoughts on Omaha-8
Jennifer Harman
January 09, 2006
In Defense of the Call
Gavin Smith
January 02, 2006
Stepping Up, Stepping Down
Kristy Gazes
December 26, 2005
Playing a Big Draw in Limit Hold 'em
Chris "Jesus" Ferguson
December 19, 2005
Know Your (Table) Limits
Paul Wolfe
December 12, 2005
Getting Started in Stud-8
Jennifer Harman
December 05, 2005
Big Slick: A Slippery Hand
Rafe Furst
November 21, 2005
Bad Cards or Bad Plays?
Team Full Tilt
November 14, 2005
Strategies for Short-Handed Limit Hold 'em
John D'Agostino
November 7, 2005
Taking on a Short-Handed No-Limit Game
John D'Agostino
October 31, 2005
What I learned at the WSOP
Jay Greenspan
October 24, 2005
Back to the Drawing Board
Perry Friedman
October 17, 2005
It's Not Easy Being Green. Or Is It?
Team Full Tilt
October 10, 2005
Texture Isn't Just For Fabric
Phil Gordon
October 3, 2005
Know Your Opponent; Own Your Opponent
Paul Wolfe
September 26, 2005
How Bad are the Beats?
Steve Brecher
September 19, 2005
Third Street in Seven Stud
Perry Friedman
September 12, 2005
Flopping a Monster
Richard Brodie
September 6, 2005
Our Favorite Poker Books
Team Full Tilt
August 30, 2005
Holding On To Your Winnings
Aaron "GambleAB" Bartley
August 22, 2005
No-limit by the Numbers
Andy Bloch
August 15, 2005
Chip Sandwich
Phil Gordon
August 8, 2005
Sizing Up Your Opening Bet
Chris Ferguson
August 1, 2005
So You Wanna Go Pro
Rafe Furst
July 25, 2005
Dealer, Leave the Bets in Front of the Players.
Greg Mascio
July 18, 2005
Not Playing By The Book
Phil Gordon
July 11, 2005
Playing Two or More Tables at Once
Erick Lindgren
July 4, 2005
How To Win At Tournament Poker, Part 2
Chris Ferguson
June 27, 2005
How To Win At Tournament Poker, Part 1
Chris Ferguson
June 20, 2005
Specialize At Your Peril
Howard Lederer
June 13, 2005
Common Mistakes
Phil Gordon
June 6, 2005
Don't Play a Big Pot Unless You Have a Big Hand
John Juanda
May 30, 2005
Ask And Ye Shall Receive Part II
Erick Lindgren
May 23, 2005
Ask And Ye Shall Receive Part 1
Erick Lindgren
May 16, 2005
Should I Stay Or Should I Go
Jennifer Harman
May 9, 2005
Keep Your Toolbox Well Stocked
Chris Ferguson
May 2, 2005
Why I Leave My Sunglasses And iPod At Home
Howard Lederer
April 25, 2005
In Pot Limit...
Clonie Gowen
April 11, 2005
The Script
Phil Gordon
April 4, 2005
Just A Few Things When Playing Razz
Jennifer Harman
March 28, 2005
A Way To Approximate The Odds
Clonie Gowen
March 21, 2005
Sit N Goes Made Easy
Howard Lederer
March 14, 2005
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Steve Brecher
November 28, 2005
Most players know that pre-flop position is important in hold 'em. The earlier your position, the more players there are behind you and, unless you hold pocket Aces, the bigger the chance that one of them will have a hand better than yours.
There is another aspect to position: It's better to act after your opponent(s) rather than before. But for this tip, I'm going to investigate the chances that a player behind you will have a better hand.
There is no universal definition of what "better" means when comparing hold 'em starting hands. For this article, I needed some reasonable, quantifiable criterion. So in the following, I'm assuming that one hand is "better" than another if its showdown equity is greater. A hand's showdown equity against another hand is the average portion of the pot it will win across all possible combinations of board cards. This is similar to the percentages that TV poker programs display next to player hands when the players are all-in. If you're interested in investigating this for yourself, there are several free computer programs and websites which calculate the showdown equities of user-specified competing hands.
For example, Ah 2d all-in pre-flop against Kc Qc will, over all possible boards, win an average of 53.9% of the pot. So the A-2 is the "better" hand against K-Q suited by our definition. Obviously, it is not better for all purposes; at a full table I'd usually open-raise in early position with K-Q suited, but toss A-2 offsuit.
Given some specific hand category – such as K-Q suited – we'll need to know the chance that a random hand dealt from the remaining 50 cards will be "better." This requires that we have a showdown equity calculation for each of the 1,225 possible opposing hands and tabulate against how many of them the K-Q suited has the worse (less than 50%) equity. It turns out that 238 of the 1,225 possible opponent hands are "better" in this sense. So we say that the chance of a random hand being better than K-Q suited is 238/1,225 or 19.4%; conversely, the chance that a random hand will not be better is 80.6%. This tabulation would be too tedious to do by hand. For the example results below, I developed some simple software to do the calculations.
Suppose that you are considering an opening bet pre-flop. There are players yet to act behind you. I'll denote the number of hands to play behind you as N. For example, if you're on the button, then there are two hands - the blinds - behind you, and N would be equal to 2. What is the probability that none of some number of random hands will be better than yours? It is the chance that one random hand will not be better than yours multiplied by itself N-1 times, which is the same as saying it's that probability raised to the Nth power. For example, if there's a 40% chance that a random hand won't be better (i.e., a 60% chance it will be better), then the chance that none of three random hands will be better is 40% x 40% x 40%, or 0.4 to the 3rd power, which equals 0.064. Hence, the chance that at least one of the three hands will be better is 1.0 - 0.064 or 0.936 or 94%.
I think the most interesting thing about these numbers is the difference between earlier and later positions. This is something to consider when you're thinking of open-raising in early position.
Steve Brecher
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